The indicators of Kazakhstan’s economy for 2016 help to assess the conditions in which enterprises, households and the insurance market operated. This page preserves the original statistical values and improves their presentation: the duplicated inflation figure has been removed and the indicators are split into two responsive tables.
Main socio-economic indicators
| Indicator | Value | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Population | 17,926.5 thousand people | as at 1 January 2017 |
| Unemployment rate | 5.0% | December 2016, estimate |
| Average monthly wage* | 151,770 tenge | December 2016, estimate |
| Inflation | 0.8% | January 2017 to December 2016 |
| GDP index | 100.4% | January–September 2016, reported data |
| Short-term economic indicator | 100.8% | 2016 to 2015 |
* Excluding small enterprises engaged in entrepreneurial activity.
Growth rates of economic sectors
| Sector | Physical volume index, 2016 to 2015 |
|---|---|
| Industry | 98.9% |
| Agriculture | 105.5% |
| Construction | 107.9% |
| Trade | 98.6% |
| Transport | 103.8% |
| Communications | 98.0% |
How to read the indices correctly
A value of 100% means the level of the base period. An indicator above 100% points to growth in physical volume, and below 100% to a decline. For example, a construction index of 107.9% corresponds to an increase in physical volume of about 7.9% compared with 2015, whereas 98.9% in industry means a decline of about 1.1%.
A physical volume index is not the same as revenue growth. Monetary turnover can rise because of prices even if the volume of production has fallen. For insurance assessment these indicators should be supplemented with inflation, the value of assets and the financial statements of the specific enterprise.
What each indicator means
- Population – the number of the permanent population on the date; used to calculate per capita indicators and to assess the capacity of markets, including retail insurance.
- Unemployment rate – the share of the unemployed in the labour force; reflects the state of the labour market and, indirectly, the solvency of households.
- Average monthly wage – the average accrued wage across the observed range of enterprises; because of the footnote on small enterprises it cannot be regarded as the average income of all employed people.
- Inflation – the change in consumer prices; the table shows the monthly value (January 2017 to December 2016), not the annual figure.
- GDP index – the change in the real volume of gross domestic product for the stated period compared with the same period of the previous year.
- Short-term economic indicator – an operational indicator built on the physical volume indices of the basic sectors, which makes it possible to assess the dynamics of the economy before the final GDP data are published.
Why estimates may differ from final data
Some of the values in the table are marked as estimates or relate to an incomplete year. Statistical bodies refine such data as reports are received, so in later publications the figures for the same period may differ slightly. When quoting, state that the value is preliminary and, where possible, check it against the final data.
How the indicators are connected with insurance
The socio-economic environment affects the frequency and size of insured events, the cost of repairs and treatment, demand for policies, clients’ solvency and insurers’ investment income. Rapid growth in construction increases the number of facilities and the liability of participants, but at the same time creates a concentration of risks.
Inflation raises the cost of restoring property. If the sum insured is not reviewed, there is a risk of underinsurance: the payment may not be enough to repair or replace the object. The value of equipment, real estate and inventories should therefore be updated regularly.
Practical application for business
Historical indicators help an enterprise to explain changes in its own reporting, to compare its dynamics with those of its sector and to justify a revision of sums insured. When renewing a business property insurance contract it is useful to check how much the value of buildings, equipment and inventories has changed since the last valuation and to adjust the sum insured so as not to face a proportional reduction of the payment.
How to use historical data
- State the exact date and period of the indicator.
- Keep the unit of measurement and the methodological footnote.
- Do not compare nominal monetary amounts without taking inflation into account.
- Compare the same periods and sources.
- Separate a preliminary estimate from final data.
- For a current decision use the latest statistics of the Bureau of National Statistics.
Compulsory insurance
Services under compulsory types of insurance are provided only by insurance companies that hold the relevant licence. Macroeconomic indicators may be used in analysis and rating models, but do not replace the procedure for calculating the premium and the payment established by law.
Frequently asked questions
Can these data be used for a current business plan?
Only as a historical base for comparison. Planning requires current statistical data and forecasts, while the 2016 figures show the level from which the sectors developed.
Why does 0.8% inflation look low?
Because it is the change in prices over one month – January 2017 to December 2016. Annual inflation cannot be judged from this value.
If you need to understand how changes in the economy affect your insurance programme, you can get a consultation.
Summary
In 2016 the sectors of Kazakhstan’s economy developed unevenly: among the areas shown, construction and agriculture displayed the most noticeable growth, while industry, trade and communications were below the 2015 level. These 2016 socio-economic indicators are useful for historical analysis provided that the period, methodology and limitations of the data are taken into account.